⚠ Theory — Under Observation
Bitcoin Cycle Tracker is based on unproven theories
This page shows two independent theories, neither of which is proven, and which can disagree with each other.

1 — The cycle clock. An observed historical pattern: Bitcoin bull phases have lasted approximately 1,064 days and bear phases approximately 364 days across 3 complete cycles since 2015. This pattern has not been independently verified and may not continue.

2 — The power law. A curve fitted to Bitcoin's own price history, suggesting long-run price tracks the time since it launched. A curve that fits the past well is not evidence it will keep fitting, and the fit is only as good as the history behind it.

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. The projected dates and price levels shown are estimates produced by these models only — not financial predictions.

All information on this page is for educational and research purposes only. This is not financial advice. You are solely responsible for any decisions you make based on information shown here.
💬 Have feedback or questions?
invest.marketedgehub@gmail.com
₿ Bitcoin Cycle Tracker
Two independent models: the 1,064 / 364-day cycle clock, and a power-law curve fitted to Bitcoin's price history. Both are unproven, and they can disagree. Projections are estimates only.
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BTC-USD Live Price
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Today's Change
$126,198
Cycle ATH (Oct 6, 2025)
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From ATH
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🐻 Bear Phase
Bitcoin is in a Bear Phase — Accumulation Window Approaching
Bear Phase Start — Oct 6, 2025 0% Projected Bottom — Oct 5, 2026
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Days in Bear Phase
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Days to Projected Bottom
364
Total Bear Phase Days
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Phase Complete
Key Target Dates
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Days to Projected Bear Bottom
~October 5, 2026
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Days to Projected Next ATH
~August 4, 2029
Historical Cycle Timeline — 2015 to Projected 2029
▼ NOW
Cycle 1
Bull 1,067d
Bear 363d
Jan 2015Dec 2017 ATH $19,666Dec 2018 Bottom $3,122
Cycle 2
Bull 1,061d
Bear 376d
Dec 2018 Nov 2021 ATH $68,789 Nov 2022 Bottom $15,476
Current
Bull 1,050d
Bear 364d
Bull 1,064d
Nov 2022 Oct 2025 ATH $126,198 ~Oct 2026 Bottom ~Aug 2029 ATH
Bull Phase (confirmed) Bear Phase (confirmed) Bear Phase (in progress) Projected Bull Phase Today
The 1,064 / 364-Day Theory
🐂 Bull Phase
1,064
Average days from bear bottom to new all-time high. Observed across 3 cycles: 1,067d · 1,061d · 1,050d.
🐻 Bear Phase
364
Average days from ATH to bear market bottom. Observed across 2 complete bear phases: 363d · 376d.
📐 Power-Law Model — A Second Lens
A completely different theory from the cycle clock above. Instead of repeating bull/bear phases, the power law says Bitcoin's long-run price follows a smooth curve tied to how long it has existed — which draws as a straight line when both axes are logarithmic. The two models are independent and can disagree.
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Model Fair Value
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Price vs Fair Value
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Position In Band
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Fit Quality (R²)
BTC price (actual)
Resistance
Fitted trend
Support
₿ Cycle theory says
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Based on the 1,064 / 364-day phase clock — a repeating calendar, independent of price level.
📐 Power law says
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Based on where price sits against its long-run fitted trend — a price level, independent of the calendar.
Year endSupportTrend lineResistance
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₿ BTC-Correlated Stocks — 12-Month Performance
Normalized from the BTC cycle ATH — Oct 6, 2025 — so you can see exactly how far each has fallen and judge the potential recovery when the bear phase ends ~Oct 5, 2026.
BTC-USD
MSTR
COIN
MARA
RIOT
IBIT
Ticker Live Price Today 1-Month 3-Month Since ATH ⓘ BTC Sensitivity
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This page is for educational and research purposes only. Both the cycle theory and the power-law model are based on historical observation and are not proven predictors of future price movements.
Cryptocurrency is highly speculative. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.